Weekend projections: Godzilla x Kong looking at monster $80-million debut

Warner Bros. is projecting an $80-million opening for Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire as of Sunday morning. If it hold on to that number (and, spoiler alert, our model thinks it will fall fractionally short), it’ll be the second film from the studio to surpass $80 million on debut during March, following Dune: Part Two. Whether is lands just over, or just under, that mark doesn’t really change the story though: this is an excellent start by any standards.

Here’s how the weekend numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

Our model’s analysis is that Godzilla x Kong is making what would amount to $108-million on opening weekend in the pre-pandemic era. That’s actually fractionally less than Godzilla vs. Kong made by that metric. With the theatrical business still really struggling, that film opened with the equivalent of $111 million based on the strength of the market at the time. In other words, this isn’t an especially surprising opening according to the model.

But what it also says is that Warner Bros. has had two major franchises emerge since the pandemic: Dune and the MonsterVerse. Neither of them has any announced sequels right now (although Max will release the TV show Dune: Prophecy later this year). That will surely change in the next month or two.

The MonsterVerse has now stormed past $2 billion worldwide, with this installation racking up $114 million internationally on its first weekend. Its top markets are China, with $44.0 million; Mexico, $12.8 million; India, $5.5 million; the United Kingdom, $5.3 million; Australia, $3.7 million; Spain, $3.5m; Indonesia, $3.0m; Taiwan, $3.0m.

Godzilla’s strength has hurt the numbers for several returning films this weekend. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire in particular is down a sharp 65% from its opening weekend, and Dune: Part Two and Kung Fu Panda 4 both lost about 10% of their expected earnings this weekend to Godzilla x Kong. The horror movies Immaculate and Late Night with the Devil both continue to do good business.

Also notable this weekend are two Bollywood films: Tillu Square and Crew, both comedies, are in the top 10, as Indian communities celebrate the arrival of Spring.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com