Weekend predictions: A Quiet Place and Inside Out doing battle for top spot

Inside Out 2 will have worthy competition at the box office this weekend, with A Quiet Place: Day One looking like it has a shot at topping the chart. Our model’s Friday prediction has the two close to neck-and-neck.

Here’s the model’s analysis of the potential for A Quiet Place: Day One:

Spin-offs don’t usually do quite as well as main franchise entries, but Day One has been getting good reviews, and our adjustment for market strength is probably a little on the conservative side after a couple of strong weeks for Inside Out. A Quiet Place: Part II had a particularly strong opening given the strength of the theatrical market in May, 2021, indicating just how popular these films are. Overall, something close to $60 million looked like a decent bet going into the weekend.

The preview figures bear that out…

$6.8 million is actually the best preview number for a movie in the Quiet Place franchise and puts something in the high $60-millions into play.

Meanwhile, out West, Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 was hoping to launch of franchise of its own. After strong tracking a while back, interest seems to have died down after disappointing reviews.

The demographic for this film will likely skew older, which should give it good legs. For that to amount to serious business, that will require a decent opening. Unfortunately, its previews suggests it’ll disappoint…

Can Horizon still recover? It certainly doesn’t pay to write off Kevin Costner’s star power, so this film might yet find an audience. It’s looking like a disappointing start so far though.

Last up for our detailed predictions is Blue Lock The Movie -Episode Nagi…

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

Inside Out 2 has the edge this weekend, according to the model, but the difference between the two top films is within the margin of error on our predictions. In short, either film could end the weekend on top. Earning $140 million between them would be an excellent result, and make this the second-best weekend of the year so far.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com