Weekend projections: Despicable Me 4 holds on strong, and Longlegs lands excellent opening

Despicable Me 4 will continue at the top of the box office chart this weekend, with a very respectable 40% decline in its second weekend. With another $44.65 million expected to land in the bank between Friday and Sunday, the animated comedy will finish the weekend with $211 million domestically. It’s cruising past $400 million worldwide (Universal pegs its tally at $437.8 million), and the franchise now has over $5 billion in theaters worldwide—the first animated series to hit that mark. The real surprise of the weekend, however, is Longlegs, which will land in second place and give distributor Neon their best weekend ever.

Here’s how the weekend numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

Our model is now predicting a final box office of $316 million for Despicable Me 4, which is up from its initial analysis of $272 million this time last week, and will mean it comfortably exceeds the performance of Despicable Me 3. This is a remarkably durable franchise, and Minions 3, due in 2027, is unlikely to be its last outing.

Internationally, Despicable Me 4 will open with about $17.7 million in China—the best performance for a US-produced animated film since the pandemic—and $12.2 million in the United Kingdom (a country that will be distracted by the Euro Cup final on Sunday, and should produce good holds as school holidays start). In Germany, it will make $9.3 million on debut, giving it the best opening weekend of the year; meanwhile, it will bag $8.7 million from its first weekend in France. Its other top markets to date are Mexico, with $24.2 million; Australia, with $22.3 million; Brazil, with $12.7 million; and Spain, where it will end the weekend with $10.5 million.

Inside Out 2 will end the weekend with $572.6 million domestically and $777.5 million internationally for a total to date of $1.35 billion worldwide. It now has $94.9 million in Mexico and $66 million in Brazil, in both cases making it the top-grossing film of all time in those markets according to Disney (we have Avengers: Endgame topping it in dollar terms in Brazil, but it may have the record in Brazilian Real by the end of the weekend—international box office measurement is complicated!). It has $57 million from the UK; $53.3 million from South Korea; $43.4 million in Italy; $43.2 million in France; and $42.1 million in China.

Domestically, Inside Out 2 will have the 12th-best fifth weekend in history, to go with its 12th-best fourth weekend. Our model is now predicting a final domestic total of $628 million.

While animation continues to dominate overall, the real standout performer this weekend is Longlegs. Not only is it posting the best opening ever for Neon, it’s the best debut for a horror movie not based on existing IP since M3GAN’s $30-million start in January last year. This was a marketing triumph for Neon, which has seen increasing returns for its horror releases over the past couple of years.

Fly Me to the Moon is meanwhile heading towards a softer $10 million on debut. That will be enough to make it the highest-grossing, wide-release romantic comedy to debut in 2024, simply because it’s the only romantic comedy scheduled for wide release this year. That, my friends, is how you destroy a genre. Fly Me to the Moon will need excellent legs to beat Anyone But You and become the top-grossing romantic comedy of the year—Anyone But You amassed $63.4 million in 2024 following its Holiday 2023 release—but it’s not going to have much competition, obviously. Hopefully we’ll see some enterprising studio realize the financial benefits of these films (although, to be fair, Fly Me to the Moon came in on a pricey $100-million budget). Universal is the only studio with one on the calendar: Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy arrives on Valentine’s Day next year.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

Please help support The Numbers with a monthly or one-time donation, or by subscribing to The Numbers Business Report. We keep advertising to a minimum, and only for advertisers who we believe are directly of interest to our readers. If you’d like to advertise your movie or service with us, please email us at advertising(at)the-numbers.com.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com