Amazon MGM Studios‘ big $200 million Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans Santa Claus caper movie Red One landed on tracking recently, and it’s eyeing a $36M opening in the U.S. and Canada with a chance for upside. The Jake Kasdan-directed reteam with his Jumanji franchise star Johnson opens November 15.
Red One was originally greenlit for streaming, but Amazon MGM pivoted to theatrical after the it tested well. Essentially when it comes to an Amazon MGM Studios deciding to go theatrical on a movie that was originally conceived for streaming, it boils down to whether the studio can cover domestic P&A costs at the box office. Hence, there’s that confidence with Red One.
Warner Bros has overseas on the Seven Bucks production reteam per its offshore deal with Amazon MGM.
Positive signs include that Red One is not just trending with guys, but also Johnson’s female followers. In unaided awareness, the category by which moviegoers cite a title in a poll without being prompted, Red One is best with teen boys. First choice is with teen boys, followed by older females and males. With Red One hot among young males, it has a path through a crowded Thanksgiving field with women going to both Moana 2 and Wicked, and older males heading to Gladiator II.
In regard to unaided awareness with teens with Red One, comps are Shazam! ($53.5M), Uncharted ($44M) and IF ($33.7M). However, keep in mind that for non-IP movies opening between $30M-$40M, there’s only been four post-Covid: Bullet Train ($30M), M3GAN ($30.4M), The Lost City ($30.4M) and IF ($33.7M). In regards to non-IP movies opening to $40M-$50M post-Covid, there was just Jordan Peele’s Nope ($44.3M).
Red One is the first major studio big budget theatrical Christmas release since Illumination/Universal’s The Grinch in 2018, which opened to $67.5M and legged out to a four-times final domestic multiple of $272.2M.
Johnson’s biggest solo non-Fast & Furious franchise domestic opening belongs to 2022’s Black Adam ($67M), while Evans’ biggest non-MCU/non-Pixar opening at the box office is Knives Out ($26.7M).