THURSDAY PM: A second strong day for Universal–Amblin‘s Jurassic World Rebirth which is evolving to a $22M-$24M today, -25% from its opening day. That’s the same Wednesday-to-Thursday hold as last year’s Illumination/Universal title Despicable Me 4, which went from an opening day of $27.2M to a second day of $20.3M. Note, July 4 fell on Thursday in 2024. Movies in the top 10 then posted upticks in their daily grosses over Wednesday except for Despicable Me 4. At this minute, Uni is sticking to its $80M 3-day, $133.5M five-day outlook on this Gareth Edwards directed movie. While there’s no doubt business will be made up on Saturday, Friday is a game of roulette in terms of how bountiful it will be given the holiday’s distractions.
Note outside of all her Marvel Cinematic Universe movies, and among live-action (not voiceover roles), Jurassic World Rebirth will rep a top opening for Scarlett Johansson; her previous non-MCU debut being Luc Besson’s Lucy from 2014 at $43.8M. The movie has been sold on her likeness, a girl with a gun (But a very different girl with a gun than Lionsgate’s Ballerina, this one has dinosaurs as co-stars).
Jurassic World was shot for $180M net before P&A in Thailand (Edwards’ stomping ground for The Creator), Malta with stage work at Sky Studios in the U.K.
THURSDAY AM: The Universal and Amblin dinosaurs are a bit louder. Jurassic World Rebirth is coming in with $30.5M opening day, again without Tuesday previews, which is pointing toward a $133.5M 5-day weekend. Its 3-day now stands at $80M.
Oh no, CinemaScore is a B, which is lower than 2022’s Jurassic World: Dominion‘s A-. Jurassic pics have landed Bs before, i.e. 2001’s Jurassic Park III a B-, the franchise’s lowest grade, and 1997’s Steven Spielberg-directed The Lost World: Jurassic Park with a B+. The original 1993 Jurassic Park and 2015’s reboot Jurassic World own the top grade As in the series.
Again, it’s the fourth-highest opening day for a Jurassic movie, and higher than last year’s Independence Day Wednesday starter, Despicable Me 4 from Illumination/Uni.
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When it comes to sizing up the best 5-day opening over July 4th, it’s not an even yardstick since the holiday jumps around. Sometimes a Wednesday opener before Independence Day can turn into a 5-day or 6-day opening stretch for a title. For benchmark purposes, Transformers: Dark of the Moon back in 2011 was one high-water mark with $162.6M in its first five days (Wednesday-Saturday), while its 6-day through Sunday was $180.6M. Another biggie over the holiday was Sony/Marvel Studios’ Spider-Man: Far From Home, which generated off of a full Tuesday opening a 6-day through Sunday of $185M, 5-day of $159.3M in 2019.
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Our midday estimate for Apple Original Films’ F1 via Warner Bros was off Wednesday. The Brad Pitt movie came in with $4.77M, -45% its discount Tuesday of $8.6M and without the T-Rex on the marquee. Running cume is $77.3M. The hope is that the Joseph Kosinski-directed Formula One movie can keep its engine together with at least a 50% decline over its second 3-day or $28M. The win for F1 is global with a current $200M+ tally.
We’ll have more updates for you as they come’
WEDNESDAY: Universal’s fourth post-Covid July 4th stretch winner, Jurassic World Rebirth, is looking at a $28M opening Wednesday sans Tuesday previews.
That’s a respectable opening day for the holiday, a bit higher than the $27.2M Wednesday opening a year ago registered by Illumination/Universal’s Despicable Me 4, which turned into a 3-day of $75M, and 5-day of $122.6M.
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Right now, it’s expected that Amblin’s Gareth Edwards-directed dinosaur romp will yield a $77.5M 3-day, $127.5M 5-day, but long forecasts off of Wednesday openings are always tricky. The swing factor here is July 4th falling on a Friday, and the day alone is typically an off-day for box office. The last time Independence Day fell on a Friday was July 4, 2014, with most movies in the top 10 seeing a hike in their daily box office (very pre-streaming days), while the top movie at the time, Transformers: Age of Extinction, dipped 28% from its previous-day gross.
Among opening days for the Jurassic franchise, Rebirth is the fourth highest, but note that it’s only the second time that a movie in the series bowed on a Wednesday, the last being Jurassic World III to $19M in 2001. The top three Jurassic opening days are 2015’s Jurassic World ($81.9M), 2022’s Dominion ($59.5M) and 2018’s Fallen Kingdom ($58.5M).
Jurassic World Rebirth is booked at 4,308 theaters and has the boosted testosterone of PLF screens. There’s no Rotten Tomatoes audience score yet, but reviews stand at 54% Rotten, up from Dominion‘s 29% Rotten.
RelishMix is spotting incredible reach for Rebirth after Uni’s social media campaign, which counts 921 million followers across TikTok, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook and X, 206% above action-adventure sci-fi genre norms. The YouTube viral repost rate stands at 26:1, “which is excellent — plus 219M monstrous views on Facebook, plus the studio has fed over 50 videos into the mix on YouTube which is notably exceptional,” says the social media analytics corp. The movie’s social media star is Jonathan Bailey with his 5.4M Instagram fans. Scarlett Johansson and Mahershala Ali are off the grid.
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(L-R) Damson Idris and Brad Pitt in ‘F1’
Warner Bros./Courtesy Everett Collection
Post-Covid Independence Day No. 1 opening wins for Uni include 2021’s F9 ($70M 3-day), 2022’s Minions: The Rise of Gru ($123M 4-day) and last year’s Despicable Me 4 ($122.6M 5-day).
Meanwhile, we’re hearing that Apple Original Films’ F1 via Warner Bros is doing an estimated $6M+ today. The Brad Pitt movie grossed $6.9M on Monday and $8.6M on discount Tuesday. Total running cume through six days will stand north of $78M by EOD.