The Last Dance’ Leads Over ‘Heretic’, ‘Christmas Pageant’

SATURDAY AM: The first two weekends of November have proven to be a rich starting point for movies — so why did Hollywood avoid booking tentpoles this year?

It was only two years ago that the month notched its best opening ever on Nov. 11 with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($181.3M). It’s the doom and gloom from the election, right? Because Trump might win, and Harris lose? That’s why Sony/Miramax’s weepy Here was the only major movie last weekend?

Sources tell me that it wasn’t the results of the elections per se they feared despite many around me in California staying at home this past Wednesday. Rather, it was the hiked price of TV spots due to the election that kept many studios away.

People do go to the movies, no matter who wins. That is, if there’s something great to see. On pre-election weekend in 2016 when Trump would ultimately win, Doctor Strange led the box office with a great $85M opening. Post-election weekend, Doctor Strange continued its run at No. 1 with a second frame of $42.9M, however, Paramount’s Denis Villeneuve sci-fi drama Arrival was one of two major studio entries and over-indexed with a $24M opening followed by Universal’s Almost Christmas which did $15.1M.

What do we have this weekend? The third frame of Sony’s Venom: The Last Dance still leading with $14M, and two modest budgeted movies, A24’s Heretic with $10.5M and Lionsgate/Kingdom Story’s The Best Christmas Pageant Ever with around $10M, give or take. While both overperformed their high single-digit NRG tracking estimates, they are around where exhibition forecasted. Even though both titles could break even or more for both distributors at the end of the game, it’s meh before the onslaught of Amazon/MGM’s Dwayne Johnson-Chris Evans Christmas movie Red One, and the perfect storm troika of Wicked, Gladiator II and Moana II.

I’ve overwritten, and I’ll write again: post-Covid, we live in a marketplace where a studio either doubles down on promoting a movie they believe in and hits a triple or a home run, or they underspend so that they can make their margins and reap riches post-theatrical. Studio execs cry for diversity of slate for all demos and releasing movies of all budget sizes, however, if they don’t produce titles that can create a spark, then they’re just surrendering to streaming. The marketplace demands more doubling-down and a consistent supply of it. Like many faith-based films, The Best Christmas Pageant Ever receives a solid A CinemaScore, 88% positive on PostTrak with general audiences and 90% with kids under 12. Heretic is the quintessential A24 movie, a smash with critics at 93% certified fresh and a C+ CinemaScore and 70% positive PostTrak, an indicator that it’s dividing audiences and creating chatter among them (Ari Aster’s Midsommar earned a C+ while Hereditary, a big grossing title at $44M for the NYC-based label notched a D+).

Why isn’t either title doing more? Hugh Grant hasn’t been a solo marquee draw since the late 90s into early aughts, despite his witty charms. One source argued to me that the opening here for Heretic is in the wheelhouse of his early low double-digit openings, ala Two Weeks Notice ($14M), Mickey Blue Eyes ($10.1M) and Bridget Jones’s Diary ($10.7M, however, that was achieved on an impressive 1,611 in opening weekend). All those numbers unadjusted for inflation.

Best Christmas Pageant Ever was built at a cost that’s under net $10M, and has a cast that makes it look like a TV movie. No one’s dashing through the snow to theaters, but Christmas movies play for a lifetime in the home market. That’s where Lionsgate has its eye. The general rule of thumb of late is for a movie with Christmas in the title to do at least a 3x, possibly 4x multiple at the box office. Best Christmas Pageant‘s opening here isn’t that far from recent holiday movies, i.e. Universal’s Emilia Clarke-Henry Golding Last Christmas ($11.4M, final $35M domestic) and even R-rated stuff like the Seth Rogen, Anthony Mackie, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, The Night Before, which posted $9.88M and finaled at $43M.

Heretic drew 55% men with 65% of the audience between 18-34, and the largest demo being 25-34 at 40%. Diversity demos were 52% Caucasian, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 10% Black, 12% Asian and 5% Native American/other. Dolby screens are driving 24% of the gross. The Scott Beck and Bryan Woods directed/written movie is playing best in the West, Mountain and South Central regions with AMC Burbank the top grossing venue so far this weekend with $27K.  

Best Christmas Pageant Ever pulled in 65% women, 10% of the audience between 13-17, 9% of the audience between 18-24 years old, 15% of the audience between 25-34 years old and 66% of the audience 35+ years old with the biggest demo being the faith-based over 55 crowd at 40%. Diversity demos are 59% Caucasian, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 6% Black, 8% Asian and 6% Native American/other. Christmas Pageant is being watched by the middle of the country with the best theater the Cinemark Yuba City in California with around $13K so far.   

Other stuff:

NEON’s wide break of Sean Baker’s Anora at 1,104 theaters by Sunday will be the filmmaker’s highest grossing movie ever at the domestic box office with $7.2M overtaking his 2017 drama The Florida Project which finished at $5.9M. Anora is in 7th place in its fourth weekend with $2.5M, +40%. Very good dollars in LA, NYC, San Francisco, DC, Orlando and Boston among others.

Crunchyroll’s Overlord: The Sacred Kingdom made $555K on Friday from 621 locations on its way to $1.1M opening, outside the top 10. Good numbers I hear only in NYC, San Diego, San Antonio, LA, Seattle and Dallas. The Naoyuki Itô-directed anime centers around Momonga, now known as the Sorcerer King Ains Ooal Gown, who rallies the Sorcerer Kingdom and its undead army to join the fight alongside the Sacred Kingdom and the Slane Theocracy in hopes to defeat the Demon Emperor Jaldabaoth.

Vertical’s George Nolfi-directed sci-fi movie Elevation, starring Anthony Mackie and Monica Baccarin did $400K yesterday and around $1M for the weekend. Critics aren’t impressed at 52% on Rotten Tomatoes. Flat results at 1,416 theaters.

Ketchup Entertainment’s Weekend in Taipei from director George Huang and starring Luke Evans, and co-written by Luc Besson, posted $150K yesterday, $360K for the 3-day at 1,021 sites in what is lackluster results with a $353 per location average.

FRIDAY PM: At this point in time, the spoils of a slow weekend are going to Sony’s Venom: The Last Dance which is looking at a No. 1 take around $14M for the 3-day after a $3.6M Friday at 3,905 sites. That’s the first time ever that a Venom movie has held the top spot at the box office for three weekends running, and this one opened to the lowest in the franchise at $51M. Previously, 2018’s Venom held the No. 1 spot for two weekends straight. As sources said last weekend about the holds that movies were experiencing post World Series “There’s nothing else out there.” Running total for the Tom Hardy starring, Kelly Marcel directed threequel is $112.8M by EOD Sunday.

In second is A24’s Hugh Grant horror movie Heretic which is seeing around $5M today, including last night’s $1.2M for what’s shaping up to be a $11M-$12M opening at 3,221 theaters. That’s at the top range of where exhibition forecasted the movie. The pic made its world premiere at TIFF and went on to play AFI. A24 made a negative pick-up of the movie from the pic’s producers for around $14M-$15M and sold foreign, keeping domestic.

Venom 3 has Imax and PLFs while Heretic has Dolby auditoriums.

Third place goes to Lionsgate and Kingdom Story’s The Best Christmas Pageant Ever which is looking at $4.8M to $5.4M today (including previews of $2.8M) for a $8.5M-$12M opening at 3,020. The movie was shot for a net production cost of $10M with Canadian tax credits. Small share of foreign sales covering this largely domestic driven piece of IP. Lionsgate hopes for a $20M-$25M end game at the domestic box office. If the movie hits $10M, it will rep the second highest opening for Lionsgate YTD after Strangers – Chapter 1 which debuted to $11.8M back in May and finaled at $35.2M U.S./Canada.

The seventh weekend of DreamWorks Animation/Universal’s The Wild Robot at 3,051 sites is $5M, -33% after a $1.25M Friday for a running total by Sunday of $129.2M.

Fifth is Paramount’s fourth weekend of Smile 2 at 2,822 sites for a Friday of $1.4M, 3-day of $4.7M, -30% for a $60.2M cume by EOD Sunday.

Keep in mind that with schools off on Monday, Veterans Day, all these movies are going to see some lagniappe in theirs tills.

FRIDAY AM: A24’s Heretic, the R-rated horror movie from A Quiet Place scribes Scott Beck and Bryan Woods, began its journey this weekend with $1.2 million in previews last night that began at 7 p.m. That figure doesn’t include the Salt Lake City sneaks that recently occurred.

Heretic‘s Thursday number is $100,000 shy from the amount that A24’s Ari Aster horror pic Hereditary did back in summer 2018, but above the $1M that Universal’s Radio Silence horror movie Abigail did and the $725K that Lionsgate/Blumhouse’s Imaginary took in; Abigail opened to $10.2M back in April while Imaginary did $9.9M back in March.

Heretic is expected to open to $10M-$12M and could steal the No. 1 spot from Sony’s Venom: The Last Dance, which is entering its third frame.

The Hugh Grant-starring Heretic is 94% certified fresh with critics and received 3 stars from audiences last night. A24 acquired domestic on the movie.

Also starting off last night was Lionsgate/Kingdom Story’s The Best Christmas Pageant Ever, which did $500K yesterday from previews that began at 4 p.m. All in with early access sneaks, the Dallas Jenkins feature take of the Barbara Robinson bestseller counts $2.8M, having grossed $2.3M in one day with early sneaks. NRG tracking the movie at $6M-$8M, with exhibition believing that number is higher.

Best Christmas Pageant Ever is 85% fresh with critics, 99% on the popcorn-meter, 4 1/2 stars with general audiences on PostTrak, 5 stars with parents, and 5 stars with kids under 12.

The rest of the week:

1.) Venom: The Last Dance (Sony) 4,131 theaters, Thu $1.6M (-3%), Wk $34.6M, Total $98.6M/Wk 2
As we told you earlier, the Kelly Marcel directed, Tom Hardy starring threequel is crossing $100M today.

2.) Wild Robot (Uni/DWA) 3,237 (-190) theaters Thu $481K (+5%), Wk $10.3M, Total $124.3M/Wk 6

3.) Smile 2 (Par) 3,235 (-389) theaters, Thu $610K (-2%), Wk $9.6M, Total $55.5M/Wk 3

4.) Conclave (Foc) 1,796 (+43) theaters, Thu $542K (-3%) Wk $7.46M , Total $17.3M/ Wk 2

5.) Here (Sony/Miramax) 2,647 theaters, Thu $411K (-9%) Wk $7M/Wk 1