Weekend predictions: Beetlejuice eyeing $100 million on opening weekend

It’ll be Beetlejuice’s time to shine in theaters this weekend, with an assured spot at the top of the box office chart, and the best opening weekend for a film since Deadpool & Wolverine came out in late July. The target for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is $100 million this weekend in North America, Here’s how our model thinks it will do…

To kick off, here’s the model’s baseline prediction for Beetlejuice, based on everything we knew until we got the preview number this morning.

Based on what we know about films like this, and its release in 4,575 theaters, our model said to expect around $58 million for Beetlejuice. Excellent audience interest and buzz boosted that number to a very healthy $74.1 million, and its Thursday previews point to something even better than that…

There’s certainly a possibility that Beetlejuice will hit $100 million this weekend. Our model is being a tiny bit cautious, with something just short of $100 million. Either way, this is a fantastic opening, particularly for this time of year.

A24 is offering some counter-programming with The Front Room…

We don’t have preview numbers for this one, but it’s safe to assume that A24 would be happy with a place in the top 5 for this one (and even hitting the top 10 would be fine, most likely).

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

The most notable film, aside from Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, is Reagan, which has performed very strongly through the week. The model is quite optimistic about its chances this weekend. To me, a drop of only 25% would be a surprise, but I can definitely see it rising one place to third in the chart in its second weekend.

One quick programming note: the weekend prediction column will be taking a break next week, but we’ll have weekend projections this Sunday and next Sunday.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com