Weekend predictions: Weapons and Caught Stealing in close race for the box office crown

It’s looking like another close-run race for top spot at the box office this weekend, although whichever film wins will have the dubious distinction of have the second-lowest earnings of a number one film this year (assuming they top Novocaine’s $8.8-million debut back on the weekend of March 14. The Labor Day holiday on Monday doesn’t usually give movies a big boost at the box office, so this will be a fairly straight-up head-to-head battle between Weapons and Caught Stealing.

Here are the predictions for this weekend’s three new wide releases, starting with Caught Stealing.

This didn’t look like it had huge potential based on fundamentals, and its previews are a little lower than Nobody 2’s, which opened with $9.3 million.

The model ends up with a predicted $10.3 million, which seems about right to me. Crossing $10 million will depend on how much of the audience on Thursday was made up of hardcore Austin Butler fans. If that’s what’s driving its performance so far, it could lose momentum over the weekend. The audience response has been strong so far though, which could help it to something closer to $11 million or $12 million.

The Roses is a movie with more modest ambitions, particularly given the relatively modest performance by most films released by Searchlight Pictures in recent years.

Previews are looking a little (ahem) rosier, and $7 million would be a solid result for a film that has a niche audience.

Finally, another film with a niche audience, albeit quite a different one…

We haven’t seem any word on previews for The Toxic Avenger, and it’s quite hard to predict. This looks like an instant cult classic, and the kind of film that benefits from being seen in a crowd. How well it will hit this weekend is hard to tell.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

We don’t have an official prediction for the Jaws re-release, but it should land somewhere around the middle of the table, based on what we’re hearing. That’ll give us four new releases in the top 10, which would normally help increase overall spending for the weekend. Alas, it looks as though that will not be the case as we end the Summer on a quiet note, financially at least.

Please help support The Numbers with a monthly or one-time donation, or by subscribing to The Numbers Business Report. We keep advertising to a minimum, and only for advertisers who we believe are directly of interest to our readers. If you’d like to advertise your movie or service with us, please email us at advertising(at)the-numbers.com.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com