Weekend projections: Bad Boys powers to $56-million opening

Bad Boys: Ride or Die is powering towards a $56-million opening weekend, according to Sony Pictures’ Sunday-morning estimate. That’s down only slightly from the pre-pandemic $62.5-million opening of Bad Boys for Life, and 26% higher than our model predicted on Friday morning. The Watchers will land in fourth place with an OK $7 million, which will be enough to lift the market as a whole back above the crucial $100-million line.

Here’s how the weekend numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

Ride or Die hasn’t been met with huge enthusiasm by critics, but is getting an A- CinemaScore this weekend, and its weekend number is 9.53 times its Thursday previews number. That’s the best multiplier for an action film like this since Bad Boys for Life, which had a multiplier of 9.83. The two films that have come closest to that mark since are The Equalizer 3, with a 9.11 multiplier, and John Wick: Chapter 4 with 8.29. Interestingly, all four movies are the third or fourth installment in their respective franchises. Franchises usually become more front-loaded as they age, but the converse seems to be true in this case.

Ride or Die becomes the fifth film to open with more than $50 million this year, and only the second of the Summer season after Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. Unfortunately, what theaters really need is a film that can bring in $100 million or more on debut, but this is a step in the right direction, and means we should have busy theaters next weekend when Inside Out 2 debuts.

Compared to Bad Boys’ strong legs through the weekend, The Watchers has tailed off quite badly. It looked like a good bet for $10 million on Friday morning, but will end the weekend with around $7 million. That’s not terrible for a non-franchise horror movie, but it will continue a string of not-terrible-not-great performances for movies in the genre. After a good run in terms of market share during and since the pandemic horror movies are taking a market share of 6.85% so far this year, down from 10% last year. That’s in spite of a steady supply of movies, and it’s the lowest share for the genre since 2016. There’s still time for it to catch up, and A Quiet Place: Day One could help enormously. But it’s another sign that moviegoers aren’t hitting theaters in the way they were a year ago.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com