Weekend projections: Flight Risk holds well through weekend to top the chart

In spite of a fairly average reception by audiences, Flight Risk is holding on well through the weekend, topping our model’s Friday-morning prediction by about 30% to come in with an opening weekend around $12 million, according to Lionsgate on Sunday morning. Movies targeting a family audience all took a hit compared to their performance over the MLK weekend.

Here are the official studio projections for the three-day weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far):

Note that Mufasa: The Lion King, Sonic the Hedgehog 3, and Moana 2 all fell 16% behind the model’s prediction. That allowed One of Them Days to stay in third place with a decline of only 32% from its opening. That takes it to $25 million after two weekends, and the model now thinks it will finish with about $40 million domestically—that’s more than four times its opening number.

The other notable films in the top 10 are A Complete Unknown and The Brutalist, both of which are being boosted by their Oscar nominations.

Overall, however, we’re looking at a very weak market right now.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com