Weekend projections: Folie à Deux limping towards $40-million opening

After Megalopolis’ creative swing and miss last weekend, Joker: Folie à Deux continues the trend this weekend, with filmgoers not finding the musical anti-hero movie to their liking. Warner Bros. is projecting the film will make $40 million by close of business today, well less than half of what the studio would have hoped for when they greenlit the project. The Wild Robot will finish second, while White Bird also disappoints on its much-delayed debut.

Here’s how the weekend numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

There’s virtually no good news to be found in Joker’s numbers this weekend. The model thought it should hit $50 million based on its preview numbers and baseline strength, but it’s falling well short of that goal. Its D CinemaScore tells you pretty much all your need to know (Megalopolis managed a D+ last weekend). A short run in theaters seems a certainty at this point, with $100 million domestically looking like a challenge.

Joker’s troubles seem to have infected most other films this weekend, with Transformers One the only film to exceed our model’s prediction. The Wild Robot is putting in a very good hold in its second weekend, but it’s still a little less than hoped for. Given the weakness of Joker, it shouldn’t have trouble holding on to theaters for a while.

The standout performer this weekend is Sam and Colby: The Legends of the Paranormal. The YouTubers’ film is playing in just 295 locations, but will finish in sixth place for the weekend. Note that we don’t have an official number for this film, so the gross shown above is our estimate. Hopefully we’ll get something official on Monday.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com