Weekend projections: Venom debuts with disappointing $51-million weekend

On Friday, our prediction model said Venom: The Last Dance would earn $54 million this weekend. I thought the model was overly pessimistic, and that the super-hero movie will land somewhere in the 60s. Well, I was wrong and the model was right. With just $51 million projected this morning by Sony Pictures, this is another miss for the super hero genre.

Here’s how the weekend numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

The main good news here is mostly that the model did a good job of predicting the weekend. The bad news is that the theatrical market looks incredibly weak. The fact that Terrifier 3 counts as the biggest hit of the past month, while only earning $44.5 million so far, says pretty much all you need to know.

The one bright spot is that the lack of big hits from the major studios means that there’s space for specialty fare to find an audience. Conclave’s $6.5 million this weekend is a very solid opening, and We Live in Time continues to perform strongly as it expands. The standout movie of the weekend, however, is Anora, which has managed to hit the top 10 while playing in just 34 theaters. It had the best theater average for any film released in 2024 last weekend, and this week’s average is in the top 20 for the year too. Its strong reviews and now excellent audience response make it an early favorite for award honors.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com