EXCLUSIVE: Here’s what’s cool about this weekend.
Without any wide entry opening to north of $30M, it’s going to be a fantastic late September frame at the box office. It wouldn’t be shocking if the marketplace sees the best late September weekend since 2018 when all films totaled $106.4M. From a pure box office standpoint –forget about budgets for a minute and marketing costs– we’ve got four wide openings aimed at various demos in Disney/Marvel Studio’s Avengers: Endgame: Encore (fanboys), A24’s Primetime (Gen-Z and Robert Pattinson fans), Paramount’s Brad Pitt dog movie Heart of the Beast (flyover states and men/women adults), and Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island (families).
Heading into this weekend, it was believed that No. 1 could be a fight between Avengers: Endgame: Encore and the second weekend of Sony/Constantin’s Resident Evil, respectively at $25M-$30M and $21M-$24M.
But there are curveballs: It’s the year of Pattinson in The Drama and beggers getting out of here memes in The Odyssey, and though A24 is eyeing $12M-$16M for his latest movie Primetime about To Catch a Predator‘s Chris Hansen and his case gone wrong, the $15M net production has a shot at a $20M opening in North America at 2,814 theaters.
“It could be a three way fight for No. 1,” says one distribution source.
We’re hearing that previews tonight for the first feature narrative title from documentary filmmaker Lance Oppenheim are chasing Avengers: Endgame: Encore‘s $3M+ previews with a figure between $2M-$3M. Previews for the R-rated Primetime began at 4PM today and Rotten Tomatoes reviews and critics are great at 86% certified fresh and 85%. Encore‘s showtimes began today at 2PM.
Those previews for Primetime are ahead of Pattinson pics The Drama ($1.7M, $14.3M opening), and possibly Mickey 17 ($2.5M, $19M opening), in addition to the Gen-Z summer horror surprise Obsession ($2.6M, $17.1M opening). The A24 financed-by-foreign sales-movie is bowing abroad this weekend in France, Germany, Austria, Taiwan, Iceland, India, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
Meanwhile, Avengers: Endgame: Encore, boosted by four extra minutes of the Russo Brothers’ upcoming Avengers: Doomsday, has preview cash that could possibly surpass that of Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith‘s re-release which was $3.4M (that turned into a $25.4M opening). We heard presales for Encore were ahead of Revenge of the Sith‘s re-release. The asterisk here is that sometimes these re-releases could be front-loaded, so we’ll see how Encore plays out. The Russo Brothers Encore is booked in around 3,000 theaters, boosted by Disney/Marvel Studio’s new certification on 1,300 premium large format screens, Infinity Vision, plus 390 Imax hubs. Encore will share Imax and PLFs with Resident Evil.
Overseas outlook for Encore is $25M in what’s bound to be a $50M WW weekend give or take. While James Cameron’s Avatar remains the No. 1 movie of all-time at $2.92B worldwide, Avengers Endgame is No. 2 with $2.799B WW (and Spider-Man Brand New Day No. 3 with $2.5B). There is a $124M WW box office gap between Avatar and Avengers Endgame. Disney is in wait-and-see mode to see if Endgame could reclaim the all-time top spot before Doomsday‘s Dec. 18 opening. Unlike Revenge of the Sith‘s one week play, there’s no endgame for Encore at the fall box office.
Paramount’s Heart of the Beast leaves audiences moved and crying, including Deadline chief critic Pete Hammond. Film reviewers aren’t shrugging it at 89% certified fresh on RT. Tracking outlook is $17M-$20M at 3,400 theaters. Previews began today for the PG-13 David Ayer directed movie at 2PM and we hear from sources they’re around $1.8M (that includes Monday Mystery screenings). That figure is just north of what Pitt’s fall 2019 sci-fi drama Ad Astra did in previews at $1.5M ($19M opening). The movie cost a net $82M before global marketing with dueling edits by Ayer and Pitt’s (Ayer’s won). Internationally, the film will open this week in 63 markets (or 95% footprint) including Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Expectation abroad is $15M for what could be a $35M WW opening. The hope is that older men and women find the film. Like Primetime, this survival tale about a Special Forces veteran and his combat dog who are stranded in the Alaskan wilderness, sells itself upon viewing.
Forgotten Island from Puss in Boots: Last Wish filmmakers Joel Crawford and Januel P. Mercado is looking at $13M-$15M at 3,500 sites. Typically, late September is home to a family animated movie, i.e. Abominable, Cloudy With a Chance With Meatballs, The Wild Robot, the list goes on. Blurb for Forgotten Island: Two best friends become stranded on the mystical world of Nakali, where their only escape might cost them their shared lifetime of memories. Previews today stateside began at 2PM and are estimated between $800K-$1M, we hear. Pic has a staggered offshore rollout. Last weekend, $1.5M was made in Mexico, Australia and New Zealand. An additional 31 markets this weekend will bring Forgotten Island‘s count to 34 markets with an additional $10M in store.
Resident Evil‘s cume through Wednesday stands at $76.8M.