FRIDAY PM: In regards to how far Disney’s live-action take on Moana will go this weekend, this answer is not far, with afternoon estimates showing a previews/first Friday around $17 million at 3,875 theaters for a 3-day between $40M-$45M — well below the $60M-plus that was hoped for on the horizon. That puts the island princess at unfortunately the same level as Disney disaster Snow White, a film with a whole other set of baggage, saddled by star Rachel Zegler’s public remarks and political leanings, which led to a first day/previews of $16.2M and an awful $42.2M opening.
At $40M-$45M stateside and sporting a $250M production cost before a hundred million more or so in P&A, not even a prayer to Maui himself will save this film, unless families decide to take the time to do so Saturday. But no rival studio is seeing anything even near a $50M 3-day.
Second on the weekend is going to Illumination/Universal’s second weekend of Minions & Monsters with a solid hold of -46%, or $20M, at 4,244 theaters off a second Friday of $6.3M and running total by Sunday of $107.8M.
Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story 5 at 3,575 theaters is looking at a fourth Friday of $5.4M and 3-day of $18M, off 40%, which will make Buzz, Woody and Jessie fly past $400M by Sunday.
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Fourth belongs to New Line’s Evil Dead Burns at 3,004 with a $6M+ Friday including previews and a 3-day of $15M.
Luciane Buchanan in ‘Evil Dead Burn‘
Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures
The second Friday of Angel Studios’ Young Washington is around $2M, with a second weekend of $6.3M, -67%, for a running cume by Sunday of $32.9M.
Sixth goes to the wide expansion of A24/Annapurna’s The Invite with $2.2M today and a third weekend of $5.1M, +635%, and a running total of $6.4M by EOD Sunday.
PREVIOUSLY, Friday AM: Disney’s live-action Moana made $4.5 million in previews from Thursday showtimes that began 2 p.m.
No audience score yet, but critics have walloped this live-action version directed by Thomas Kail with Maui’s hook at 35% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s lower than the live-action version of Snow White (39%) starring Rachel Zegler, Will Smith’s Aladdin (57%) and Dumbo (46%).
Previews here for Moana are higher than Snow White ($3.5M, $42.2M opening) and Dumbo ($2.6M, $45.99M opening), but lower than Little Mermaid ($10.3M previews, $95.5M 3-day opening) and Aladdin ($7M previews, $91.5M 3-day opening). They’re also well below the Tuesday previews before Thanksgiving of Moana 2 ($13.8M, $139.7M 3-day).
Here’s the thing: Earlier this week we heard that Moana was hoping for a low-$60M start, but exhibitors pushed that down to a high-$40Ms projection. Presales heading into the weekend were at $4M. Yikes. Success with the latest Dwayne Johnson movie relies on walk-up business Saturday, and the fear is that the family space is crowded with the mega success of Toy Story 5 and the recent lackluster release of Minions & Monsters, not to mention it’s too much Moana, too soon, this version arriving less than two years from the box office tsunami that was the animated Moana 2.
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We have confirmed that the live-action Moana cost $250M before global P&A, which is higher than the $200M price tag of Johnson/Seven Bucks’ Amazon MGM Studios’ production Red One and even the Rock’s Red Notice.
If Moana comes in well under its $60M+ domestic forecast, the hope is that midweek business makes up for the shortfall as the feature will remain the only fresh family title during the onslaught of Universal’s The Odyssey and Sony/Marvel Studios’ Spider-Man: Brand New Day, and before Paramount lets PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie off its collar August 14.
Separately, New Line’s Sam Raimi-produced Evil Dead Burn did $2.3M in previews, which is $200,000 shy of previous installment Evil Dead Rise‘s $2.5M. That number translated into a $23.5M opening for the 2023 movie from Lee Cronin, which was 85% certified fresh with critics. Evil Dead Burn from Sébastien Vanicek stands at 72% certified fresh with critics. No audience score yet.
Minions & Monsters counts a nine-day total of $87.7M after launching on Wednesday, July 1, that total running 47% behind Despicable Me 4 (another Wednesday opener) over the same period. The latter Illumination/Universal title ended its run at $361M stateside.
The rest of the week is as follows at the B.O.:
2. Toy Story 5 (Dis) 3,965 theaters, Wk $49.8M (-54%), Total $385.2M/Wk 3
3. Young Washington (ANG) 2,725 theaters, Wk $26.6M/Wk 1
4. Supergirl (WB) 3,602 theaters, Wk $13.5M (-72%), Total $62.M/Wk 2
5. Obsession (Foc) 2,650 theaters, Wk $9.4M (-41%), Total $249.5M/Wk 8
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